Every weekday this college basketball season, USA TODAY Sports picks the field for the NCAA tournament 
Penn State players and coaches react from the bench during the second half of the team's thrilling 84-78 victory over Michigan. (Photo: Rich Barnes, USA TODAY Sports) Story Highlights - Could a No. 16 seed upset a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament?
- No. 1 seeds are 112-0 against No. 16 seeds since 1985
- Kansas and Michigan both have lost to weak teams
As the calendar turns to college basketball's defining month, one question is stirring increasing debate during this topsy-turvy and volatile season: Could this finally be the year when a No. 16 seed upsets a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament?
"A 16 beating a 1 is not out of the question," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski told USA TODAY Sports in a telephone interview. "It's so balanced, so balanced … Crazy things like that – crazy because they have not happened before – not so crazy with the chances of it happening. It's easier to lose now than ever before."
AT-LARGE BOARD: Ranking tournament bids
SEEDING: Could Gonzaga be No. 1 in poll, No. 2 in NCAAs?
Since the tournament field expanded to 64 in 1985, No. 1 seeds are 112-0 against No. 16 seeds. But this regular season has not only been defined by extreme balance nationwide but also two monumental upsets that give potential No. 16 seeds everywhere – be it Northeastern (CAA), Norfolk State (MEAC) or Mercer (Atlantic Sun) – reason for optimism.
TCU, which ranked 236th in the RPI, earned an upset over Kansas on Feb. 6 that stands as one of the most improbable regular season results in several years. And Penn State, which ranked 200th in the RPI, upended Michigan on Wednesday in an outcome that was at least on par with a No. 15 seed beating a No. 2 in the NCAA tournament. Fifth-ranked Kansas and fourth-ranked Michigan both remain in contention for No. 1 seeds in the NCAAs.
Darkhorses are narrowing the gap on the elite. Before last season, a No. 15 seed had beaten a No. 2 four times since 1985. Then it occurred two more times in last season's tournament, with Lehigh beating Duke and Norfolk State upsetting Missouri.
BUBBLE TRACKER: What teams make the cut?
And there have been several other breakthroughs in the NCAA tournament in recent years: 11th-seeded George Mason beating three of the game's preeminent programs – Michigan State, North Carolina and Connecticut – en route to the 2006 Final Four; Butler, a team then from the Horizon League, reaching back-to-back national title games in 2010 and 2011; and 11th-seeded VCU, a controversial at-large selection in 2011, winning five games, including an opening-round game in Dayton, to reach the Final Four.
What's critical for No. 16 seed to break its glass ceiling? The best No. 16 seeds need to first make the NCAA field by winning their respective league tournaments to claim the automatic berths into the NCAAs. For example, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference-leading Norfolk State (18-10) would be more of a threat to a potential top seed like Miami than a Florida A&M (8-19), one of 10 teams from the MEAC with losing records.
As Kansas coach Bill Self said: "I do think we are getting closer" to a No. 16 over a No. 1. "The whole thing is, that is just one game."
**
Bracket selections by USA TODAY Sports' Bracketologist Patrick Stevens:
Last four in: Boise State, Virginia, Villanova, Kentucky
First four out: Alabama, Mississippi, Massachusetts, Tennessee
Next four out: Baylor, Charlotte, St. John's, Maryland
Conference call: Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Atlantic Coast (5), Atlantic 10 (5), Big 12 (5), Mountain West (5), Pac-12 (5), Southeastern (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)
Entering the field: Boise State
Exiting the field: Charlotte
MIDWEST REGION
At Dayton, Ohio
(1) BIG TEN/Indiana vs. (16) SOUTHWESTERN/Southern-COLONIAL/Northeastern
(8) N.C. State vs. (9) CONFERENCE USA/Memphis
At Austin, Texas
(4) Butler vs. (13) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Louisiana Tech
(5) Oklahoma State vs. (12) Villanova/ Kentucky
At Salt Lake City
(3) MOUNTAIN WEST/New Mexico vs. (14) IVY/Harvard
(6) Illinois vs. (11) Temple
At Philadelphia
(2) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Stony Brook
(7) Oregon vs. (10) MISSOURI VALLEY/Wichita State
EAST REGION
At Philadelphia
(1) Duke vs. (16) MID-EASTERN/Norfolk State
(8) UNLV vs. (9) Colorado
At Kansas City, Mo.
(4) Syracuse vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Akron
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Iowa State
At Dayton, Ohio
(3) Louisville vs. (14) SUMMIT/South Dakota State
(6) Minnesota vs. (11) Saint Mary's
At Lexington, Ky.
(2) SOUTHEASTERN/Florida vs. (15) BIG SKY/Montana
(7) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (10) Creighton
SOUTH REGION
At Lexington, Ky.
(1) ATLANTIC COAST/Miami vs. (16) ATLANTIC SUN/Mercer-BIG SOUTH/Charleston Southern
(8) PAC-12/UCLA vs. (9) Colorado State
At Austin, Texas
(4) Kansas State vs. (13) PATRIOT/Bucknell
(5) Pittsburgh vs. (12) La Salle
At Auburn Hills, Mich.
(3) Michigan vs. (14) SOUTHERN/Davidson
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Boise State/Virginia
At Salt Lake City
(2) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (15) BIG WEST/Long Beach State
(7) Oklahoma vs. (10) California
WEST REGION
At Kansas City, Mo.
(1) BIG 12/Kansas vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Robert Morris
(8) San Diego State vs. (9) North Carolina
At San Jose, Calif.
(4) Marquette vs. (13) HORIZON/Valparaiso
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) OHIO VALLEY/Belmont
At San Jose, Calif.
(3) Arizona vs. (14) SOUTHLAND/Stephen F. Austin
(6) ATLANTIC 10/Saint Louis vs. (11) SUN BELT/Middle Tennessee
At Auburn Hills, Mich.
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/Niagara
(7) Missouri vs. (10) Cincinnati
About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' 2013 bracket specialist. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse.
HIGHLIGHTS: THE TOP MARCH MADNESS MOMENTS OF ALL-TIME 
The NCAA has released a list of 35 finalists for its top March Madness moments of all time. Fans can vote for the top moment starting in January. Take a look at some of the notable moments to make the list, including VCU going from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011. Michael Thomas, Associated Press Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
2010: Butler comes up just short against Duke in final. Robert Scheer, The Indianapolis Star Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
2008: Kansas rallies in closing minutes to edge Memphis. Mark Humphrey, AP Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
2006: George Mason defies odds with Final Four run. Susan Walsh, Associated Press Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
1998: The Shot. Valparaiso's Bryce Drew hit a game-winning three-pointer. JOHN GAPS III Associated Press Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
1995: Tyus Edney saves UCLA against Missouri. Jack Smith, Associated Press Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
1992: Duke's Christian Laettner sinks Kentucky at the buzzer. Amy Sancetta, Associated Press Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
1990: Bo Kimble shoots lefty in NCAAs as tribute to teammate. Bob Galbraith, AP Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
1983: Indiana achieves perfection. Porter Binks, USA TODAY Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
1983: N.C. State's last-second heroics to beat Houston. AP Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
1979: Magic Johnson and Michigan State top Larry Bird and Indiana State. Associated Press Related story Fullscreen Like this topic? You may also like these photo galleries: Replay 
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Source : http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2013/02/25/bracket-prediction-picking-the-field-for-the-ncaa-tournament-no-1-seeds/1945533/
Penn State players and coaches react from the bench during the second half of the team's thrilling 84-78 victory over Michigan. (Photo: Rich Barnes, USA TODAY Sports) As the calendar turns to college basketball's defining month, one question is stirring increasing debate during this topsy-turvy and volatile season: Could this finally be the year when a No. 16 seed upsets a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament? "A 16 beating a 1 is not out of the question," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski told USA TODAY Sports in a telephone interview. "It's so balanced, so balanced … Crazy things like that – crazy because they have not happened before – not so crazy with the chances of it happening. It's easier to lose now than ever before." AT-LARGE BOARD: Ranking tournament bids SEEDING: Could Gonzaga be No. 1 in poll, No. 2 in NCAAs? Since the tournament field expanded to 64 in 1985, No. 1 seeds are 112-0 against No. 16 seeds. But this regular season has not only been defined by extreme balance nationwide but also two monumental upsets that give potential No. 16 seeds everywhere – be it Northeastern (CAA), Norfolk State (MEAC) or Mercer (Atlantic Sun) – reason for optimism. TCU, which ranked 236th in the RPI, earned an upset over Kansas on Feb. 6 that stands as one of the most improbable regular season results in several years. And Penn State, which ranked 200th in the RPI, upended Michigan on Wednesday in an outcome that was at least on par with a No. 15 seed beating a No. 2 in the NCAA tournament. Fifth-ranked Kansas and fourth-ranked Michigan both remain in contention for No. 1 seeds in the NCAAs. Darkhorses are narrowing the gap on the elite. Before last season, a No. 15 seed had beaten a No. 2 four times since 1985. Then it occurred two more times in last season's tournament, with Lehigh beating Duke and Norfolk State upsetting Missouri. BUBBLE TRACKER: What teams make the cut? And there have been several other breakthroughs in the NCAA tournament in recent years: 11th-seeded George Mason beating three of the game's preeminent programs – Michigan State, North Carolina and Connecticut – en route to the 2006 Final Four; Butler, a team then from the Horizon League, reaching back-to-back national title games in 2010 and 2011; and 11th-seeded VCU, a controversial at-large selection in 2011, winning five games, including an opening-round game in Dayton, to reach the Final Four. What's critical for No. 16 seed to break its glass ceiling? The best No. 16 seeds need to first make the NCAA field by winning their respective league tournaments to claim the automatic berths into the NCAAs. For example, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference-leading Norfolk State (18-10) would be more of a threat to a potential top seed like Miami than a Florida A&M (8-19), one of 10 teams from the MEAC with losing records. As Kansas coach Bill Self said: "I do think we are getting closer" to a No. 16 over a No. 1. "The whole thing is, that is just one game." ** Bracket selections by USA TODAY Sports' Bracketologist Patrick Stevens: Last four in: Boise State, Virginia, Villanova, Kentucky Conference call: Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Atlantic Coast (5), Atlantic 10 (5), Big 12 (5), Mountain West (5), Pac-12 (5), Southeastern (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2) Entering the field: Boise State MIDWEST REGION At Dayton, Ohio (1) BIG TEN/Indiana vs. (16) SOUTHWESTERN/Southern-COLONIAL/Northeastern (8) N.C. State vs. (9) CONFERENCE USA/Memphis At Austin, Texas (4) Butler vs. (13) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Louisiana Tech (5) Oklahoma State vs. (12) Villanova/ Kentucky At Salt Lake City (3) MOUNTAIN WEST/New Mexico vs. (14) IVY/Harvard (6) Illinois vs. (11) Temple At Philadelphia (2) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Stony Brook (7) Oregon vs. (10) MISSOURI VALLEY/Wichita State EAST REGION At Philadelphia (1) Duke vs. (16) MID-EASTERN/Norfolk State (8) UNLV vs. (9) Colorado At Kansas City, Mo. (4) Syracuse vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Akron (5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Iowa State At Dayton, Ohio (3) Louisville vs. (14) SUMMIT/South Dakota State (6) Minnesota vs. (11) Saint Mary's At Lexington, Ky. (2) SOUTHEASTERN/Florida vs. (15) BIG SKY/Montana (7) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (10) Creighton SOUTH REGION At Lexington, Ky. (1) ATLANTIC COAST/Miami vs. (16) ATLANTIC SUN/Mercer-BIG SOUTH/Charleston Southern (8) PAC-12/UCLA vs. (9) Colorado State At Austin, Texas (4) Kansas State vs. (13) PATRIOT/Bucknell (5) Pittsburgh vs. (12) La Salle At Auburn Hills, Mich. (3) Michigan vs. (14) SOUTHERN/Davidson (6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Boise State/Virginia At Salt Lake City (2) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (15) BIG WEST/Long Beach State (7) Oklahoma vs. (10) California WEST REGION At Kansas City, Mo. (1) BIG 12/Kansas vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Robert Morris (8) San Diego State vs. (9) North Carolina At San Jose, Calif. (4) Marquette vs. (13) HORIZON/Valparaiso (5) Ohio State vs. (12) OHIO VALLEY/Belmont At San Jose, Calif. (3) Arizona vs. (14) SOUTHLAND/Stephen F. Austin (6) ATLANTIC 10/Saint Louis vs. (11) SUN BELT/Middle Tennessee At Auburn Hills, Mich. (2) Michigan State vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/Niagara (7) Missouri vs. (10) Cincinnati About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' 2013 bracket specialist. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse. HIGHLIGHTS: THE TOP MARCH MADNESS MOMENTS OF ALL-TIME Story Highlights
First four out: Alabama, Mississippi, Massachusetts, Tennessee
Next four out: Baylor, Charlotte, St. John's, Maryland
Exiting the field: Charlotte 
Like this topic? You may also like these photo galleries:
Source : http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2013/02/25/bracket-prediction-picking-the-field-for-the-ncaa-tournament-no-1-seeds/1945533/