Every morning, USA TODAY Sports analyzes the Big Dance picture 
Mississippi guard Marshall Henderson shoots a free throw during his team's game against Mississippi State on Saturday. The Bulldogs upset the Rebels 73-67. (Photo: Spruce Derden, USA TODAY Sports) Story Highlights - The carnage among borderline NCAA tournament teams Saturday wasn't surprising
- Almost every team that matters for bubble purposes in the SEC struggled
- Ole Miss had the biggest résumé stain by falling to a bad Mississippi State team
Days until Selection Sunday: 14
The first word:
The carnage among borderline NCAA tournament teams Saturday wasn't particularly surprising. These are, almost by definition, fairly average teams that are typically losing about once a week during conference play.
HIGHLIGHTS: How the top 25 fared Saturday
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So hold off on the astonishment. This isn't surprising.
What does stand out is the struggles of just about every team that matters for bubble purposes in the Southeastern Conference.
Kentucky predictably fell at Arkansas, a beast of a home-court team that can do little good outside of Bud Walton Arena. 
Kentucky coach John Calipari reacts during the Wildcats' 73-60 loss to Arkansas. (Photo: Beth Hall, USA TODAY Sports) Georgia completed the sweep of Tennessee, putting at least a temporary halt to the Volunteers' surge up the at-large board.
Alabama lost at Florida, which is the least egregious sin of the whole lot but still doesn't do the Crimson Tide any good.
Then there was Mississippi, which lost at Mississippi State. That's the same Mississippi State that lost its previous two games by an average of 36.5 points and had lost 13 in a row.
There's still enough time for a couple of these teams (Kentucky, in particular) to recover and work their way into the NCAA tournament. But on this particular day, the borderline teams of the SEC were a downright mess.
Biggest résumé stain:
It's Mississippi, and it isn't even close. The Rebels have more losses to teams outside the top 200 of the RPI in their last four games (two) than top-50 wins for the entire season (one). The 73-67 setback at Mississippi State is a profile-crushing defeat, and has a chance to hold up as one of the worst losses absorbed by a borderline tournament team this month.
Trouble is, with Ole Miss' lack of quality wins, poor nonconference strength of schedule and rapid fade since a 17-2 start, the Rebels might not be a borderline team before long --- if they're even one at the moment.
Bubble winners:
Collectors of victories, quality or otherwise, on Saturday …
- Boise State: No one on the edge of the at-large discussion did more to help themselves Saturday than the Broncos, who handled Colorado State 78-65. Boise State (20-8) has regular-season games against UNLV and San Diego State still to come and is now 7-6 against the top 100.
- Maryland: The Terrapins (20-9) grinded out a 10-point victory at Wake Forest, which hasn't usually ranked high on a list of accomplishments for teams chasing at-large berths. Yet with so many other teams falling and Maryland (now 4-7 away from College Park) in need of a road victory, the Terps actually improved their profile.
- Massachusetts: The Minutemen (18-9) still possess a flawed profile, but it isn't easy to go to Xavier and win (just ask Memphis). UMass' five-point victory in Cincinnati sets up a crucial showdown with Butler on Thursday. Win that, and the Minutemen might find themselves in position to reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998.
Bubble losers:
A handful of teams who severely damaged their NCAA tournament hopes Saturday ...
- Arizona State: The Sun Devils fell behind big early, then couldn't exploit Southern California's lackluster play down the stretch. Arizona State was swept in its Los Angeles swing and, coupled with a dreadful nonconference strength of schedule, is pretty much out of rope for making an push for an at-large bid.
- Charlotte: And that'll about do it for the 49ers, who had 104 points dropped on them at St. Bonaventure. Charlotte has lost four straight and six out of seven, and appears ticketed for the NIT at this point.
- Iowa: The Hawkeyes needed to do something special to make any sort of push on the at-large board, and their last chance to do so was Saturday at Indiana. One 13-point loss later, Iowa probably needs to win the Big Ten tournament to advance to the NCAA tournament.
Résumé worth dissecting: Baylor
The Bears don't enjoy the strongest of resumes, have dropped seven of their last 10 and are coming off a gut-wrenching loss thanks to a buzzer-beater from Kansas State's Rodney McGruder on Saturday. Other than that, everything's just peachy in Waco. It goes without saying Baylor has no margin of error remaining, but let's be clear: Even winning the next two will leave the Bears with a lot of work to do in the Big 12 tournament.
NIT-bound (unless it wins its conference tournament): Indiana State
What a perfect way for the Sycamores to wrap up the regular season. The same team that beat Miami on a neutral floor, won at Wichita State and knocked off Creighton still managed to go 9-9 after falling to Drake and Evansville in the final week of the season.
Indiana State (17-13) might not even be an NIT lock at this stage. If the Trees are to make a push in the Missouri Valley's Arch Madness next weekend, they'll need to rebound from an 84-68 loss to Evansville and beat the Purple Aces in the quarterfinals before a likely encounter with Creighton in the semis. After a 1-5 finish, Indiana State's chances for success are slim.
On deck:
- Villanova at Pittsburgh (noon, Big East Network): The Wildcats could really use a win in one of their final two conference games (the other being Wednesday's home date with Georgetown) to bolster its NCAA tournament candidacy.
- Virginia at Boston College (4, ACC Network): Fresh off a victory over Duke, the Cavaliers cannot be content with a 20-8 record --- especially with six losses to teams outside the top 100 of the RPI on their resume. A setback in Chestnut Hill would bump that total to seven.
- Utah at Stanford (5, Pac-12 Network): The Cardinal is 4-0 against the bottom three teams in the Pac-12 standings, a group that includes Utah. Stanford's slim at-large hopes will evaporate with a home loss to the Utes.
Stat of the day:
Sun Belt leader Middle Tennessee, which will enter its conference tournament with a 27-4 record after Saturday's victory over Western Kentucky, has not appeared in the NCAA tournament since 1989. The Blue Raiders' NCAA drought is the longest among teams that entered Saturday in the top 75 of the RPI.
The big picture:
Michigan State-Michigan, Round 2, is probably not a No. 1 seed eliminator game.
After all, either of those two could go on a tear on the Big Ten tournament and find themselves on the top line of the bracket.
But realistically, it's going to be hard for Michigan to wind up with a vastly better profile than their in-state rivals with a loss.
For one, it would give the Spartans a sweep of the Wolverines. And it would also give Michigan an underwhelming 3-5 mark since the start of February.
On the flip side, John Beilein's team is unbeaten at home this season. Based on that, the gap between Michigan State and Michigan --- which grew a bit last week when the Wolverines lost at Penn State --- might get a little smaller on Sunday.
***
About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' bracket/bubble specialist for the 2013 NCAA tournament. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse.
PHOTOS: ALL THE COLLEGE BASKETBALL ACTION 
UCLA Bruins guard Kyle Anderson dunks the ball as Arizona Wildcats center Kaleb Tarczewski watches during the second half at the Pauley Pavilion. Richard Mackson, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Indiana Hoosiers forward Cody Zeller takes a shot against Iowa Hawkeyes guard Eric May at Assembly Hall. Brian Spurlock, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Indiana Hoosier fans wave large fatheads to distract Iowa Hawkeyes as they shoot free throws at Assembly Hall. Brian Spurlock, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Baylor Bears forward Cory Jefferson dunks over Kansas State Wildcats forward Jordan Henriquez during the first half at the Ferrell Center. Kevin Jairaj, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Minnesota Golden Gophers guard Joe Coleman dunks the ball in the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Williams Arena. Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Arkansas Razorbacks forward Hunter Mickelson and Kentucky Wildcats forward Willie Cauley-Stein battle for control of a rebound during a game at Bud Walton Arena. Beth Hall, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Kentucky coach John Calipari reacts during the Wildcats' 73-60 loss to Arkansas. Beth Hall, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Southern California forward Dewayne Dedmon, right, grabs a rebound in front of teammate Byron Wesley (22) against Arizona State during the first half of the Trojans' 57-56 victory. Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Southern Methodist's Nick Russell dunks against Alabama-Birmingham during the Mustangs' 74-69 loss. Marvin Gentry, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Tennessee coach Cuonzo Martin watches his Volunteers against Georgia during the Bulldogs' 78-68 win. Daniel Shirey, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
The Virginia Commonwealth mascot Rodney Ram gets pumped up as the No. 25 Rams rout No. 21 Butler, 84-52. Geoff Burke, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Virginia Commonwealth fans cheer on their 25th-ranked Rams against No. 21 Butler. Steve Helber, AP Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Notre Dame's Jerian Grant works against the defense of Marquette's Vander Blue during the No. 22 Golden Eagles' 72-64 victory. Jeff Hanisch, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Tarik Black of Memphis slams one home in front of Central Florida's Keith Clanton during the No. 17 Tigers' 76-67 win. Phelan M. Ebenhack, AP Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Christopher Paul II, the son of Los Angeles Clippers point guard and former Demon Deacons star Chris Paul, looks up at the banner as his father's number is retired at Wake Forest. Chuck Burton, AP Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul sits courtside with his son Christopher Paul II and wife, Jada, during Wake Forest's 67-57 loss to Maryland. Paul, a former Wake Forest standout, had his No. 3 jersey retired. Jeremy Brevard, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul enjoys the Wake Forest-Maryland game with his son Christopher Paul II. Though the Demon Deacons lost 67-57, Paul, a former Wake Forest standout, had his No. 3 jersey retired. Jeremy Brevard, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Butler's Roosevelt Jones tries to break free against Virginia Commonwealth guards Briante Weber, right, and Rob Brandenberg, left, during the second half of the No. 25 Rams' 84-52 rout. Steve Helber, AP Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Virginia Commonwealth guard Briante Weber goes up for the dunk during the No. 25 Rams' 84-52 rout against No. 21 Butler. Geoff Burke, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Alabama coach Anthony Grant looks on as his Crimson Tide takes on No. 6 Florida. The Gators rallied for a 64-52 win. Rob Foldy, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
The Syracuse student band performs during the No. 12 Orange's 58-53 loss to No. 9 Louisville at the Carrier Dome. Mark Konezny, USA TODAY Sports Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Wake Forest's Aaron Rountree III, back, and Maryland's Nick Faust fight for a loose ball during the first half of the Terrapins' 67-57 win. Chuck Burton, AP Related story Fullscreen ![None]()
Louisville's Russ Smith is called for charging against Syracuse's Michael Carter-Williams during the No. 9 Cardinals' 58-53 win. Kevin Rivoli, AP Related story Fullscreen Like this topic? You may also like these photo galleries: Replay 
Mississippi guard Marshall Henderson shoots a free throw during his team's game against Mississippi State on Saturday. The Bulldogs upset the Rebels 73-67. (Photo: Spruce Derden, USA TODAY Sports) Days until Selection Sunday: 14 The first word: The carnage among borderline NCAA tournament teams Saturday wasn't particularly surprising. These are, almost by definition, fairly average teams that are typically losing about once a week during conference play. HIGHLIGHTS: How the top 25 fared Saturday JOIN THE CONVERSATION: Tweet us how you really feel So hold off on the astonishment. This isn't surprising. What does stand out is the struggles of just about every team that matters for bubble purposes in the Southeastern Conference. Kentucky predictably fell at Arkansas, a beast of a home-court team that can do little good outside of Bud Walton Arena. Kentucky coach John Calipari reacts during the Wildcats' 73-60 loss to Arkansas. (Photo: Beth Hall, USA TODAY Sports) Georgia completed the sweep of Tennessee, putting at least a temporary halt to the Volunteers' surge up the at-large board. Alabama lost at Florida, which is the least egregious sin of the whole lot but still doesn't do the Crimson Tide any good. Then there was Mississippi, which lost at Mississippi State. That's the same Mississippi State that lost its previous two games by an average of 36.5 points and had lost 13 in a row. There's still enough time for a couple of these teams (Kentucky, in particular) to recover and work their way into the NCAA tournament. But on this particular day, the borderline teams of the SEC were a downright mess. Biggest résumé stain: It's Mississippi, and it isn't even close. The Rebels have more losses to teams outside the top 200 of the RPI in their last four games (two) than top-50 wins for the entire season (one). The 73-67 setback at Mississippi State is a profile-crushing defeat, and has a chance to hold up as one of the worst losses absorbed by a borderline tournament team this month. Trouble is, with Ole Miss' lack of quality wins, poor nonconference strength of schedule and rapid fade since a 17-2 start, the Rebels might not be a borderline team before long --- if they're even one at the moment. Bubble winners: Collectors of victories, quality or otherwise, on Saturday … Bubble losers: A handful of teams who severely damaged their NCAA tournament hopes Saturday ... Résumé worth dissecting: Baylor The Bears don't enjoy the strongest of resumes, have dropped seven of their last 10 and are coming off a gut-wrenching loss thanks to a buzzer-beater from Kansas State's Rodney McGruder on Saturday. Other than that, everything's just peachy in Waco. It goes without saying Baylor has no margin of error remaining, but let's be clear: Even winning the next two will leave the Bears with a lot of work to do in the Big 12 tournament. NIT-bound (unless it wins its conference tournament): Indiana State What a perfect way for the Sycamores to wrap up the regular season. The same team that beat Miami on a neutral floor, won at Wichita State and knocked off Creighton still managed to go 9-9 after falling to Drake and Evansville in the final week of the season. Indiana State (17-13) might not even be an NIT lock at this stage. If the Trees are to make a push in the Missouri Valley's Arch Madness next weekend, they'll need to rebound from an 84-68 loss to Evansville and beat the Purple Aces in the quarterfinals before a likely encounter with Creighton in the semis. After a 1-5 finish, Indiana State's chances for success are slim. On deck: Stat of the day: Sun Belt leader Middle Tennessee, which will enter its conference tournament with a 27-4 record after Saturday's victory over Western Kentucky, has not appeared in the NCAA tournament since 1989. The Blue Raiders' NCAA drought is the longest among teams that entered Saturday in the top 75 of the RPI. The big picture: Michigan State-Michigan, Round 2, is probably not a No. 1 seed eliminator game. After all, either of those two could go on a tear on the Big Ten tournament and find themselves on the top line of the bracket. But realistically, it's going to be hard for Michigan to wind up with a vastly better profile than their in-state rivals with a loss. For one, it would give the Spartans a sweep of the Wolverines. And it would also give Michigan an underwhelming 3-5 mark since the start of February. On the flip side, John Beilein's team is unbeaten at home this season. Based on that, the gap between Michigan State and Michigan --- which grew a bit last week when the Wolverines lost at Penn State --- might get a little smaller on Sunday. *** About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' bracket/bubble specialist for the 2013 NCAA tournament. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse. PHOTOS: ALL THE COLLEGE BASKETBALL ACTION Story Highlights
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